Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 5.061440 5.947531 6.926732 8.086810 9.421286 10.905836 12.679935
2025-07-27 3.845733 5.079410 6.589213 8.561783 11.058583 14.100222 18.071176
2025-08-03 2.929035 4.278576 6.080237 8.635207 12.133981 16.721267 23.147565
2025-08-10 2.215558 3.540627 5.450866 8.360193 12.622406 18.568968 27.404845
2025-08-17 1.687660 2.928236 4.845743 7.958856 12.799968 19.930886 31.079831
2025-08-24 1.363511 2.548148 4.497019 7.845084 13.330395 21.798708 35.629341
2025-08-31 1.124726 2.252392 4.217586 7.772820 13.879166 23.711694 40.406262
2025-09-07 0.995766 2.120834 4.184003 8.089417 15.077867 26.746234 47.226723
2025-09-14 0.854258 1.933707 4.014784 8.131669 15.795848 29.044795 53.046544
2025-09-21 0.736131 1.767011 3.851911 8.152559 16.462622 31.302148 58.986857
2025-09-28 0.637540 1.619743 3.699722 8.164812 17.102074 33.556156 65.107711
2025-10-05 0.616754 1.641123 3.892755 8.883910 19.159404 38.541469 76.523390
2025-10-12 0.558688 1.566693 3.877431 9.187011 20.466054 42.319779 86.182585
2025-10-19 0.510498 1.506765 3.885580 9.544100 21.930372 46.550339 97.098649
2025-10-26 0.446582 1.391901 3.748418 9.561325 22.689887 49.485957 105.805645
2025-11-02 0.373454 1.234006 3.479938 9.237088 22.674066 50.869124 111.589459
2025-11-09 0.306566 1.075905 3.180369 8.789703 22.323071 51.519746 115.944207
2025-11-16 0.264296 0.979978 3.022778 8.662361 22.677782 53.669380 123.540513
2025-11-23 0.230008 0.899853 2.892352 8.582260 23.129355 56.060891 131.834757
2025-11-30 0.214731 0.878820 2.923430 8.928317 24.644147 60.914467 145.775187
2025-12-07 0.191684 0.824482 2.847722 8.974403 25.420974 64.176640 156.495289
2025-12-14 0.170818 0.772122 2.768063 8.997205 26.140248 67.367449 167.305308
2025-12-21 0.152261 0.723086 2.689357 9.010590 26.835634 70.560556 178.366279